Making better environmental decisions given ridiculously high levels of uncertainty


We often predict environmental outcomes using models built using sketchy assumptions, and, perhaps, if we are really lucky, a small set of low-quality data. So how can we use such cruddy models to make environmental management decisions? Are the decisions we recommend better than what a manager might just say based on their subjective experience? I’ll walk folks through some of the simple maths.


Dr Holden is an ARC DECRA fellow and lecturer in mathematics at the University of Queensland, where he works on quantitative methods to reduce overexploitation of our natural resources. He completed his Ph.D. at Cornell University, where he worked on the optimal management of invasive species, agricultural pests, and fisheries.


This seminar will be held using the video conferencing software Zoom. If you would like the link, please email