Synchronous natural climate cycles of the Common Era, for Europe, China and globally – existence and implications for future temperature trends


We compare proxy temperature cycles contained in data sets from European glaciation, China agricultural records, and two global proxy constructions. A high correlation between European and China data sets, especially for 800-2000 CE, demonstrates a level of synchronicity beyond possible regional phenomena. Spectral analysis shows a series of spectral peaks in all data sets consistent with those detected globally in cosmic ray flux, which supports the theory of natural climate cycles being partially under astronomical control. An interesting sidelight from the European and China data is observed temporal coincidence of social phenomena such as population decrease, starvation, disease and wars during phases of cooling, compared with human advancement during historical warmer phases. When the observed natural cycles are built into climate models, part of the global temperature increase of the past 170 years may be accounted for by natural cycles; we explore how this may influence estimates of climate sensitivity (the warming attributable to CO2 forcing for a doubling of atmospheric CO2).


Michael Asten is a Professor (Retired) and ongoing Adjunct Senior Research Fellow in the School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne. He is a past-President of the ASEG, and served a recent three-year term as the AGC representative on the Australian Academy of Sciences UNCOVER Committee. He has published 201 scientific papers. He has developed passive seismic (microtremor) methods for 15 years, developing applications for earthquake hazard and regolith characterization in Australia, China, Turkey, North America and South America. He fulfilled a leading role in the 2018 international COSMOS blind trials of microtremor array methodology. He has also been researching for eight years the role of natural cycles in centennial and millennial global climate change; this work has been subject of six papers at international conferences, the latest of which is scheduled for the EGU in Vienna, May 2020.


This seminar will be held using the video conferencing software Zoom. If you would like the link, please email